The Syrian Connection

France and the UK are pressing  the EU for approval to   directly arm the Syrian rebels,  and for now, are being rebuffed by  fellow EU members. The reality is that  France (ex-coloniser of Syria and Lebanon)  and the UK  have been  arming and supporting the rebels since the war’s  inception via their “intelligence”  departments; either directly via “discreet”  arms shipments into Turkey and  Jordan by air , or indirectly, via weapons bought and shipped  through  the  hereditary (Sunni) dictatorships in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with the CIA also mounting extensive weapons distribution and training  programmes inside Turkey and now Jordan.

Why then the EU request for direct  military  assistance of the rebels?. By committing  the formal  military networks that the various EU countries possess, into the war, Britain  and France will be able to seamlessly  pull in  the other European countries into  an ongoing military occupation of Syria/Lebanon to combat the extremist risks they have done so much to create. This will  create yet another combat zone where civilians  will have to subsist in  a land  without the necessary infrastructure of adequate food water and sewage systems to survive-another Palestine, Libya or Afghanistan  in other words. By doing so, it will  deprive the Iranians of one more of their state allies in  the region and one less supporter of a Palestinian state. This  will however also  inevitably lead the two  Shi-ite governments of  Iraq and Iran into closer alliance.

Israel, with its  rascist  government in  some dissaray, is wavering in its support of the rebels; havering between the  risks of having  Salafists on  its borders and having an opportunity to remove one more of its arch-enemies who dares to block its advance into, and occupation of,  “Greater Israel”.

On the other side, Russia is carefully supporting the Assad regime with  “top-up”  armaments and  training, and giving  moral  and tactical support through  its Mediterranean naval  exercises  out of the Russian Tartus naval  base on  the Syrian coast. Similarly Iran appears to be  using its informal military network ; the Iran Revolutionary  Guard or ‘Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution’ (IRGC), with the likely support of Hezbollah, to supply and train the paramilitary and Shi-ite/Alawite units supporting Assad. For now, China appears to be offering moral,  but not much  else, support to  the Assad regime. This is unlikely to change.

Iraq’s Shi-ite  government is also very keen to ensure that the  Salafist  groups (affiliated or not to Al Qaeda) supported by  Qatar and Saudia Arabia, (and rather more directly by  the Western powers than they would care to admit),  do  not gain  a long-term foothold in Syria with unimpeded transport lines to the Arabian peninsula and  Turkey from the Mediterranean and the Muslim entities of the former Soviet Union; thereby significantly  improving their  strategic position in Iraq.

As always, the Western powers are attempting a divide and rule approach; using their long term hereditary  dictatorship Sunni allies of Saudi Arabia, Yemen  and Qatar to  offset  the growing influence and power of the Iranians, and the Shi-ite disaster they created for themselves  in  Iraq. The risks of blowback this time however are even more enormous. The growing salafist influence in the Turkish border region and beyond, the growing  power of the Kurds straddling  so many different  ‘middle east’  countries,  the potential for a massive upswing in  Sunni versus Shite violence in Iraq, let alone the potential  overthrow  of the current Iranian theo-demo-cracy  with something unknown and likely more radical, has the potential  to lead to  the establishment of a real Salafist caliphate in  the region; with all its violent, expansionist medieval and misogynist  cultural impacts, and a  real “clash of civilizations” with the West.

Such would be the delight of the neo-conservatives!

And just  to make things slightly more complex!- it would appear the power balance is swinging-as the current desperate gas shortage in  freezing  temperatures in  the UK demonstrates. The  oil/gas-rich Sunni  dictatorships are acquiring considerably more leverage in  cash-strapped Western states then ever before, even while their own societies implode.

Postscripts:

Read Moon of Alabama’s current relatively considered take on  the Syrian  situation  here

Or Tony Cartalucci’s more radical  view of the  weapons shipments issues here  calledCONFIRMED: US Shipping Weapons to Syria – Al Nusra’s “Mystery” Sponsors Revealed

Or  Henry  Precht  at Lobe Log’s “Syrias civil war and its unintended consequences”

http://www.lobelog.com/syrias-civil-war-and-its-unintended-consequences/

 

 

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